On Making Your Own Luck

By focusing on what you can control and influence instead

Luck is a peculiar thing.

In the moment, when things are going your way, you sometimes get carried away and find yourself chalking it up to being in “the right place at the right time.” You seemingly attribute the reason for success to luck alone, or at the very least, a big part of it.

On the flip side, with failure staring you in the face, it can be easy to write it off as a bad roll of the dice or, as some would say, “better luck next time.”

But no matter the result, upon closer reflection, we usually remember that it’s a lot more nuanced than that. So much goes into determining whether we’re successful or not whenever we do something.

We may even find ourselves asking if there is anything that could have been done differently to change the outcome.

I have friends close to me who obsess about the interplay with luck. And not in the sense that they leave everything up to chance, but rather, in the pursuit of success, they actually work very hard to give themselves the best possible odds.

Now, this isn’t unusual at all; we probably all know someone like that; heck, it may even be the way we are at times given the circumstances.

What’s funny, though, is that it’s fine when things go well. Yes, luck gets some of the credit, but having done the work and reached your goal, it feels good to be able to pat yourself on the shoulder for a job well done.

But when things go awry, it can be a lot harder to break things down logically and figure out what went wrong. Sometimes blaming it on bad luck is just easier, even if it ends up making you feel helpless at times.

I’m a big fan of The Plain Bagel over on YouTube (they do amazing work in the investing and personal finance space). And while I unfortunately cannot recall the specific video, there was a preamble on outcomes being determined by basically three things: capability, timing, and luck, which made a lot of sense to me.

In my opinion, it is a surprisingly simple yet effective way to look at things.

Now, obviously, the world we live in is far more complex than that, but it can help to break things down into a more abstract concept to better understand yourself and the environment around you, given a situation, a desired outcome, and the options available.

On capability, timing, and luck

The Venn diagram below can be one way of illustrating how capability, timing, and luck work together in determining an outcome. An outcome can be anything, from something you’re working towards to an unexpected opportunity that pops out of thin air—or even something you’re looking back on in hindsight.

Their sizes (impact) and how much they overlap with each other (influence) may differ depending on the situation, but keeping things equal can suffice, especially when starting things out.

At the end of the day, it’s a thought exercise that can help put things in perspective, nothing more.

Each area and its relative importance can be discussed and debated exhaustively. By all means, we should endeavor to explore them as much as possible, but for this framework to be effective, we always need to be mindful of the big picture.

Capability is pretty self-explanatory. It captures anything that you technically have control over. This can range from your own abilities and knowledge to the resources you may have at your disposal as well as the people and connections around you. 

It is what you are actually capable of doing in a given situation, whether in theory or based on how you’ve performed in the past.

Compared to the other two, this area is generally where you’ll have the most influence. Whether this is training or preparing for an event, making an important decision, or simply making the most out of a leisurely experience, like a hobby or holiday, everything that goes into being able to do it the way you’d like to falls into this category.

And if you’re not able to do something the way you’d like to, well, then that would be an area to work on in terms of improving your capability.

As a catch-all for everything that you’re supposedly capable of doing and in control of, you’d think that this area should invariably be larger than the other two.

This may be the case in some situations, but keeping things in equal proportions serves as a reminder that if you’re not being strategic and aware of things outside of your control, then you could also say that in some situations, it just doesn’t matter how capable you are; you’ll inevitably fall short.

Timing is an interesting one. At first glance, we usually think of it as the “when.”

While this is certainly the case, I also think there is another factor to consider here. If your capability is your “what,” then timing plays a critical role strategically in “how” and “when” you apply it.

Think about it: there will be times when doing something once is your only option (e.g., a project deadline or a job interview), and therefore everything goes into making the most of that one moment by putting your best foot forward.

On the other hand, there will also be times where you get more than one try. In some of these cases, it may just be in your best interest to pace yourself and get as many attempts as possible to increase your chances for success (e.g., practicing a new skill or hedging your bets).

You have some control here, but given that there are usually external factors at play, there will be limitations. In that sense, timing is the strategic lens you apply to your capabilities given a situation and a desired outcome.

Luck, finally.

This is an area where many of us likely have a love-hate relationship. To me, it essentially captures all the variables that we cannot control or even be aware of.

The world we live in is so inherently complex, with more moving parts than we can ever hope to fathom. To help deal with it, we’ve given it a label as something that sometimes works in our favor and sometimes doesn’t.

When weighing a situation against your capabilities and timing in terms of achieving a desired outcome, luck can be thought of as the probability, or chance, of things going your way, given the above.

Everything else, you could say, is bad luck or the probability of things not going your way.

Now, probability implies some kind of certainty (in terms of knowing the odds), but let’s be honest, most of the time it’s gut-feel based on experience and what we do know and are able to control.

And it’s this uncertainty that I think introduces an extra piece—risk.

The fact is, there will always be some element of risk in everything that we do. Some risks can be avoided; others can only be mitigated; and yes, there are some over which we have no control or visibility.

And while luck inevitably plays a role in determining which risks occur, it helps to know what risks you’re exposed to and do what you can to manage them. The more you’re able to do this with the areas you have control over, the more likely things will go your way.

Final thoughts

For obvious reasons, the diagram above shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Life is complicated, and everybody’s circumstances are different and unique.

But as a thought exercise, it can be an effective tool to add some perspective when assessing your situation and options. For one, by keeping things equal, it allows you to think about how changing one area that you can control could potentially affect the others.

For example, if you have a view on timing and luck, you can then think about how improving your capability could improve your chances for success and whether it’s feasible.

Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, it can help manage expectations and keep you grounded. Yes, there are situations where luck can be a non-factor, but this framework is a reminder that there are some things out there that you just cannot control.

If you think about it, almost everything we do in life involves some kind of risk management. 

How do we minimize the risk of something going wrong and maximize the experience or outcome that we’re seeking?

It’s impossible to account for everything. There will always be some form of risk at play. The best you can hope for is to mitigate the risks you’re aware of and be in a position to manage them, should they occur. 

Now, thinking about your life as one big risk management exercise can turn someone into a cynic. As they also tend to say, “If something can go wrong, it inevitably does.”

For some reason, it’s human nature to remember the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. We conveniently forget everything in between, which is where we tend to find ourselves most of the time.

But even in the middle, life is always full of surprises. And I do find solace and excitement knowing that, in the same way that things can go wrong, they can also go unexpectedly right.

It goes without saying that the key to “making your own luck” is to try and be the best version of yourself while doing the best that you can as much as you can. But I do think being mindful of the big picture can help swing things in your favor more often than not.

See you in the next one!

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