Looking Beyond the AI Hype
You'd think the world has already changed. A follow up
I’ve become numb to the amount of news coverage and social media craze around AI as of late. It does look like we're right in the thick of it.
Seemingly everyone, especially media outlets and content creators, is trying to “cash in” on AI as it reverberates through the news cycle and society at large.
We’ve seen AI hype come and go in years past. This time feels a bit different. What started with DALL-E and ChatGPT in 2022 has continued to build momentum well into this year, with a wave of new product announcements and use-cases going viral on social media.
I’ve had more people talk to me about AI in the last few weeks and what it could mean than ever before.
It was only a short while ago that I wrote about the paradigm shift that generative AI could usher in and talked a bit about AI’s disruption of online search.
And in that time, we’ve seen more progress across applicability, accessibility, and adoption as tech businesses accelerate efforts to capture market share in what many believe to be the next frontier.
OpenAI announced its latest iteration with GPT-4, Microsoft shared their plans to integrate with their Office productivity suite ecosystem with Copilot 365, Anthropic officially launched Claude as their answer to ChatGPT, and Google has begun beta testing Bard (LaMDA) while mulling opening up its other language model, PaLM, to third parties.
We’re not quite there yet
With the Internet smitten, it now seems like every other crypto and metaverse startup has become AI-centric.
If you buy into the number of AI-related hustle videos that have exploded on social media, you’d think that we’d already ushered in a new era and everyone would be a side hustle millionaire by now.
And it’s not just content creators and startups; established businesses are also getting a bit carried away with the endless possibilities of AI in their marketing and pivoting away from strategic bets that were heavily criticized as if it were no big deal.
Now, are these false pretenses? Of course not, but are things a bit exaggerated and overstated at the moment? I think so.
If anything, the aspirations that businesses are pushing in their promises for AI are something that I hope we get to over time. But we’re not there yet.
Don’t get me wrong: The latest generation of consumer AI software, that is, tools and services that we, as users, can see and use, has pulled off some truly amazing feats. What OpenAI and Microsoft have been showcasing in 2023 alone can leave someone with a sense of awe.
But generally speaking, I do get the sense that many of these are still fringe cases. They’re either hard to replicate, lack consistency, or are choreographed to show what is possible. In other words, they’re best-case scenarios.
In reality, a significant amount of time and effort (and, in most cases, money) is needed to be able to take advantage of these technologies in a way that would make a meaningful difference to your lifestyle or workflow.
However, that doesn’t mean that AI hasn’t already made a difference in people’s lives. AI has been working in the background on many products and services for years.
As the technologies have continued to mature, they’ve become easier to understand and use. We’re now seeing them come to the forefront with consumers, with each generation of chatbots and programs becoming less of a gimmick and more of an actual helpful tool or feature.
I’ve even surprised myself with the number of tools and services that have become part of my workflow. Having said that, have they been a game changer? Not yet.
Yes, I’ve generally noticed my productivity increase, and at times, this feels amazing. But more often than not, it has been at the expense of quality. The worrying part is that it can be hard to tell at times.
Generative AI can create coherent sentences and paragraphs that seem to make sense and sound right in such a confident manner that you tend to just “trust it.” Furthermore, it can be challenging and tiring to decide what to fact-check and what is probably okay when you’re churning out more work and there’s never enough time.
Knowing this, I can imagine that for many professionals or paying customers, it can be difficult and risky to fully adopt these technologies in their current state.
Until they become more seamless and reliable, it’ll be hard to change consumers' habits. All of this takes time.
What things could look like
Microsoft has been hitting it out of the park with its recent string of announcements. What started with taking on Google’s search dominance with Bing was swiftly followed by a revitalization of its productivity software with Copilot 365.
It almost feels like a plan years in the making to prevent a repeat of missing out on past paradigm shifts. Yes, Microsoft is that old.
Let’s not forget about Microsoft’s attempts to catch up with Google and Apple during the rise of smartphones with its failed Windows Phone operating system and Nokia acquisition, and missing the boat on the social media revolution, giving way to Facebook (now, Meta).
Despite those setbacks, Microsoft has turned its weaknesses into strengths, kept its legacy products relevant, and is now going into overdrive with AI. All bets are seemingly off.
The world is now looking at how Google will respond with Bard based on its LaMDA language model, but I’d also keep an eye on Google’s plans with PaLM and engaging with third-party developers.
With the former apparently limited to replicating and holding natural conversations, it does seem that PaLM will have more business relevance with its general applicability as it can problem-solve and write code in addition to language and communication.
Ultimately, it’ll come down to which ecosystems prevail in order to realize the applicability, accessibility, and adoption of new technologies to their fullest. A thriving third-party developer and business community that is building off your platform will be essential in achieving this.
Today’s ecosystems provide apps and widgets that keep us informed about our social circles and the world around us. They keep us entertained and help us stay on top of our responsibilities at work or at home.
AI technologies are already interwoven into so many of them. Almost every form of social media or video streaming platform employs AI algorithms to feed you content and keep you engaged. If you’re an Android user, Google Assistant will remind you and offer commute options so you can arrive in time for appointments you have set in Google Calendar.
Tomorrow’s ecosystems may just be a world where a layer of “AI apps” are more contextually aware and involved in how we live our lives and work at our jobs.
We’ll be able to control and instruct them in a way that feels more natural, and over time, they may just end up managing parts of our lives in a way that we could only dream of.
I believe that one of the turning points for this will be when AI programs and services reach a stage where they can “talk to one another” and effectively act as agents to help us better manage our lives in a far more efficient and reliable way.
We’re seeing bits and pieces of this already, and it’ll only improve over time. However, which platforms they’re built on and ecosystems they support will play a big role in ushering in this new era.
Final thoughts
As I mentioned in a previous post, I’d prefer to leave the nuances surrounding the technical and ethical ramifications of AI to experts and policymakers.
Increasingly, alarm bells have been ringing about the exploitation and harm that can be inflicted on consumers, rights holders, and society in general. It is definitely a cause for concern.
For better or worse, we’re already seeing increased attention and scrutiny by regulators, notably in Europe, with respect to what might be considered “high-risk” systems.
As you can imagine, the private sector is already worried about overregulation. My hope is that through public-private discourse and partnership (that is, industry and government coming together), efforts can be accelerated to bridge any gaps.
As an example, the harm that AI could inflict, ranging from mass misinformation and scam campaigns to writing malicious code at scale, reminds me of computer viruses and the anti-virus software industry that was born from them.
In the same way bad actors may be incentivized to carry out unethical or illegal activities, I expect that there will be individuals and organizations to combat them with the same technologies.
Why am I so sure? Well, it’ll likely be very profitable.
A quick note: Future issues will be less regular due to some changes in my personal circumstances. I do look forward to these and will continue to write as and when I can!
If you missed last week’s article, feel free to read it below:
great take, thank you, cheers!